CocoaDust

That last post was a tangent from my original thought bubble of when we were likely to get a ship date for Leopard and the futility of planning for future versions of Mac OS X.

It matters to me because I need to know what’s coming and plan for it. I have a fair idea of what I am doing for the rest of the year; what makes things difficult is the way software sales nosedive during the summer months.

Timing is everything. I need to get major releases out during peak periods, no good releasing software if everyone is up a mountain or at the beach. If Leopard is going to be out in June, just before sales start to dip (I think Leopard can get away with such seasonal trends) then great, I can do my best to get updates out before then.

However, if it’s going to be around April or early May and I need to do Leopard-specific work (because we just don’t know) then my current plans would need some adjustment, because there are plenty of other things I could be doing too.

Of course, if Apple thought a lot of work would be required, they’d let us know about it sooner, but I work up to the wire. It is so easy for my time to be devoured by events in ways that simply allow me to maintain the status quo. This year I am really determined to go beyond that.

So, Apple has succinctly redefined itself with the Macworld keynote in name, while the transformation has been taking place over the last few years it now seems somehow more substantial. One could easily say this started with the iPod, but arguably the iMac was Jobs’s first real statement following his return to the company that pitched Apple in a different direction to its business-oriented competitors. That path led us here.

I think developers in particular could feel a little slighted by the Macworld keynote and iPhone. As it stands the phone is not extensible, available or even suitable for everyone’s phone contract arrangements, but it is utterly desirable, runs Mac OS X and more than worthy of Apple brand, so that’s good. The trouble is what wasn’t announced at the keynote leaves developers and consumers hanging. I come at this from the developer perspective and will concentrate on the software here.

What’s happening with Leopard? It seems pretty certain we will see it by the time of the launch of the iPhone, if not before, and that Leopard is partly the cause of the delay. iLife, iWork? Well, maybe they are waiting for the big cat too, which would suggest that they will truly embrace Leopard technology in a way no iLife suite has done with the current OS before, and then the possibilities boggle the mind.

The annual update cycle now seems broken, maybe permanently. Perhaps not a bad thing, it is quite a demanding and artificial timeframe for any developer. It hardly seems like Apple would launch these products without fanfare as the very appeal of the Mac on a consumer level begins with iLife; the iPod, .Mac, soon AppleTV and later the iPhone are all affected by it in some way, and the suite influences and impacts countless third party applications.

So what do we know now and where could that lead us?

We know, because Mr Jobs told us, that there is more to Leopard than we have been shown. Many people think this will bring an updated UI, and sure enough there are aspects to the iPhone that have an iTunes 7ish look about them, although we do not know that is final or that it will have anything to do with the desktop version of Leopard. Seems likely though, given the fact that the phone runs a version of OS X and Apple is keen on making a point of this.

We know that Apple really *should* show such UI updates to developers some time before the release goes out, because everyone (including Apple) is using a billion custom controls to compensate for a lack of such standard controls in shipping versions of the OS and that anything more than minor changes could prove rather ugly.

Trouble is, we don’t know that is coming, but assuming there is something to significantly revamp the Mac OS X experience in Leopard and that this something would appear in developer builds, then such an update would get leaked in a heartbeat, so it really needs to be shown to the public first or there goes any ooh-ahh announcement, without which Steve Jobs simply wouldn’t exist. Vanish in a puff of smoke, he would.

It’s also safe to assume we know updates to the iLife and iWork applications are coming in whatever shape and form. To go beyond the middle of the year with a pair of suites suffixed with ‘06 will just be too… last year. I think AppleTV is planned to work as things are, so its February availability doesn’t matter here.

All this seems to narrow the timescale for a preview of Leopard to around April at the latest and I would predict (hahaha!) sometime by the end of March, for no other reason than a gut instinct. On iLife, who can be so sure? Maybe we won’t get to see that until the summer. iWork seems neither here nor there unless spreadsheets get you moist. And, of course, there is everything we don’t know because it doesn’t exist yet. There could be a lot of that.

I think the iPhone is the first shot of what should turn out to be an exceptional year for the Mac and it seems all the more fitting that Apple is keeping us in suspense on all of this.

Note to long-term followers of my various blogs: Yes, I’ve already had to resort to song titles in order to name my posts. Things can only get better.